Indian diplomats describe their nation’s actions in the Middle East with a certain pride. India can purchase oil from one rival, sell weapons-grade cooperation to another, and maintain cordial relations with a third, they have stated for years in an almost casual manner. When you say it aloud, it sounds unattainable. It mostly worked for a considerable amount of time. However, it’s difficult not to feel that the trick was always more brittle than New Delhi revealed as you watch it strain this spring.
Think about the order. Modi referred to the friendship between Israel and India as a source of strength while standing in the Knesset in late February. Iran was hit by US and Israeli strikes a few days later. In a matter of weeks, Tehran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries almost all of India’s cooking gas and about half of its crude. Suddenly, the nation that had just welcomed Israel in Jerusalem was calling Iran’s president and discreetly requesting that its tankers be allowed to pass. Two LPG ships flying the Indian flag went by. Then two more. Perhaps this was just pragmatism. Additionally, it appeared to be a nation caught in the worst possible situation between two friends.
The piece from Russia is the loudest and, in a sense, the most straightforward. India has been purchasing Russian crude at steep discounts for years, ignoring criticism from the West and maintaining that its own needs come first. The person in charge of the leash has recently changed. Following pressure on New Delhi to cease purchasing Russian oil, Washington reversed course and permitted it once more for thirty days during the shortage, leaving everyone to speculate as to what would happen next. The opposition’s leader, Rahul Gandhi, claimed that India had allowed the US to choose its energy suppliers. The discomfort is real, regardless of your opinion of the politics. Permission is disliked by a nation that values its independence.
The quietest and perhaps most depressing thread is Iran. The Iranian embassy in Delhi mentioned a Kashmiri woman who donated gold kept in memory of her late husband, demonstrating the genuine affection between the two countries that have shared centuries of language, trade, and pilgrimage routes. However, the relationship has become hollow due to sanctions. Once marketed as India’s entry point into Central Asia beyond Pakistan, the Chabahar Port continues to stall; funding has been frozen, and stakes are being considered for transfer. After a US-Israeli strike, India had to wait days to sign a book of condolences and almost two weeks to express its grief over a school bombing in Minab that claimed 175 lives. One historian observed that trust has diminished.
The truth is that strategic autonomy was more of a luxury of peaceful times than a fixed position. According to one analyst at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, the doctrine functions best in a dynamic world and falters when opposing factions simultaneously demand allegiance. India still has the strength to involve everyone. Uncomfortably, it is discovered that neutrality and engagement are not synonymous. It is genuinely unclear whether this crisis will permanently alter New Delhi’s stance or just frighten it back to the center. The juggler keeps the balls in the air for the time being, keeping his hands moving and his eyes up in the hopes that no one will throw a fourth.
