Observing Islamabad, a city more frequently linked to security alerts than diplomatic theater, transform into the space where the US and Iran finally sat across from one another is somewhat ironic. That discussion was supposed to take place in Geneva, perhaps in Vienna, or in some opulent Oslo chamber for decades. Rather, it took place in a sealed Red Zone at the Serena Hotel, where 10,000 police officers surrounded the diplomatic area and traffic was redirected off the Express Highway. It’s difficult to ignore how out of style that host is. And how it managed to function in any case.
The war itself was a significant event. The Supreme Leader was dead, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, American and Israeli planes had attacked Iran in late February, and the world’s oil markets were acting as they do when no one knows what the future holds. Trump had been calling for unconditional surrender, a deal, and more bombs for weeks. Looking back, it seems like everyone in the area was waiting for someone to fill the void. The majority of onlookers thought it would be in Oman or Qatar, the typical locations. Few people wager on Pakistan.
However, if you squinted, the credentials were visible. Pakistan and Iran have a 900-kilometer border, a close religious and cultural relationship, and the second-largest Shia population in the world, after the Islamic Republic. Pakistan reciprocated Iran’s 1947 recognition in 1979. In Washington, where Iran lacks an embassy, it also serves as Tehran’s diplomatic representative. When you have to deliver a message at three in the morning, that kind of plumbing is important.
The American side of the story is represented by Field Marshal Asim Munir, whose relationship with Donald Trump has, by most accounts, grown to be one of the most significant and little-documented in contemporary geopolitics. When questioned about Iran in early April, Trump claimed that Pakistan was “better than most.” Many late-night phone calls are concealed by a line like that.
The first round of negotiations took place in the middle of April and lasted twenty-one hours. They failed to reach a consensus. Iran’s vice president, JD Vance, claimed that Tehran had refused to remove the nuclear issue from the table, while Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that a memorandum of understanding was just inches away. Most likely, both versions are partially accurate. The two sides have something approaching agreement on about 85% of non-nuclear issues, such as the language surrounding the Strait, prisoner files, and the order of sanctions. The remaining 15% is always responsible for either extending or ending wars.
The image has become more disorganized since then. The day after the negotiations broke down, Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran. Iran declined to send delegates to the next round. In the background, Iranian officials started murmuring that Pakistan was too biased in favor of Washington to be impartial. Then, in late April, Tehran’s foreign minister returned to Islamabad, sitting next to Ishaq Dar while inexplicably continuing to converse. There have been violations, extensions, partial breaches, and partial reconstructions of the ceasefire, sometimes within the same week.
In actuality, Pakistan is selling patience and geography. Islamabad depends on the Strait for its own fuel supply, so it must remain open. It is already engaged in another conflict on the Afghan border, so it needs this one to end. Additionally, it must appear indispensable since the only foreign policy a nation in its position can afford is to simultaneously be indispensable to Beijing and Washington. It seems that the Sharif administration is more aware of this than its detractors will acknowledge.
It remains to be seen if the Islamabad Process, which now appears to be a process rather than a single event, will truly put an end to the war. The news cycle affects Trump’s mood. Even Iranians are unable to understand Iran’s internal politics. The Israelis have made it very evident that they are not bound by the Lebanon truce. However, the way mediation operates in this region of the world has changed, and for the time being, the mail is delivered to Islamabad.
