You can sense that Alaska hasn’t had a genuinely open governor’s race in over 20 years. The political apparatus of the state, which is typically centered on incumbents and well-known figures who cycle through Juneau, suddenly lacks a focal point. After Mike Dunleavy was eliminated by the blunt tool of term limits, there was something akin to a stampede. He was not defeated, nor disgraced. The number of candidates who filed to succeed him was seventeen, which seems more appropriate for a congressional primary in a swing state than a governor’s race in a state where politics has traditionally been a small room.
The results of the August 18 primary either make perfect sense or seem a little strange, depending on your priors. Democrat and former Sitka state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 21.7 percent of the vote. Tom Begich, a fellow Democrat and the grandson of the late congressman Nick Begich, trailed him by 20%. In an Alaskan primary, two Democrats held the top two positions. Even a few years ago, that statement would not have seemed obvious.
Democratic observers believe that something has changed in the state, or at the very least, that the division of the Republican field has created a window that would not otherwise exist. Twelve GOP contenders split the vote, with former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson and Bernadette Wilson emerging as the top Republicans with just 10.5 percent. If you’re attempting to organize a party, neither figure gives you confidence. Republican voters were dispersed across a wide range of names, from well-known former officials like Treg Taylor and Click Bishop to people most Alaskans outside of their districts could hardly identify, rather than being neatly split along ideological lines.
All four of those front-runners advance to November, when ranked-choice voting takes over, thanks to Alaska’s unique top-four primary system. It becomes truly difficult to forecast at that point. Although Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins both have reputable donor networks and real name recognition, running two Democrats in the same general election creates a unique kind of conflict. When Republican voters rank their preferences and those second and third choices cascade down, ranked-choice mechanics may end up greatly favoring one of them. Another possibility is that the two Democrats split a ceiling, allowing one of the Republicans to slip through with a late consolidation.
Bill Walker is also involved. In a political landscape that has changed significantly since then, the former independent governor who won in 2014 with a Democratic running mate—a coalition-building strategy that was genuinely creative at the time—is attempting to thread a similar needle. His primary numbers were low in the beginning. It’s unclear if Alaska has sorted itself into clearer partisan lanes since his tenure, or if his pragmatic, nonpartisan style of politics still has the same resonance. One of the more intriguing subplots leading up to fall will be observing how his campaign handles that issue.
At the very least, this primary has shown that Alaska’s political environment in 2026 is truly competitive in a manner not seen in a long time. Due to Dunleavy’s lengthy tenure, ambitions on both sides were restrained. Now that those bottles have opened almost simultaneously, the outcome is either a Republican coalition that unites just enough to win the seat or a November ballot that could potentially result in Alaska’s first Democratic governor in decades. Neither result is guaranteed. Both seem feasible. This race is worth watching much more closely than most people outside the state are right now because of that tension alone.
FAQs
1. Why is there no incumbent running in the 2026 Alaska governor race?
Mike Dunleavy is term-limited and legally unable to seek another term.
2. How does Alaska’s primary system work?
The top four finishers advance to November, regardless of party.
3. Who led the August 2026 primary results?
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led with 21.7 percent of the vote.
4. What voting method is used in the general election?
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting to determine the final winner.
5. Is Bill Walker running again for Alaska governor?
Yes, the former independent governor entered the 2026 race again.
