Last September, the Ottawa fighter jet review was scheduled to conclude. It didn’t. By late April, Defense Minister David McGuinty continued to tell a Senate committee that the government was “taking the necessary time” to investigate the fleet issue. This is the kind of statement that politicians use when they are at a loss for words. The Royal Canadian Air Force continues to fly CF-18s, which were first put into service when the Cold War dominated everyone’s thoughts, more than a year after Mark Carney ordered the review.
As this develops, it seems as though no one in Ottawa genuinely wants to make the call. Early in 2023, a contract for 88 F-35s was signed, marking the conclusion of a ten-year search. After that, trade ties with Washington deteriorated, Carney assumed office, and the matter was revived. The first 16 aircraft have already received funding. Payments for production slots have persisted. However, the file is still officially “under review,” which is beginning to feel like a permanent state.
| Canada’s Future Fighter Capability Project | Key Information |
|---|---|
| Country | Canada |
| Prime Minister | Mark Carney |
| Defence Minister | David McGuinty |
| Original Contract Value | $19 billion CAD (approx. $13.9 billion USD) |
| Aircraft Under Contract | 88 F-35A Lightning II jets |
| Manufacturer | Lockheed Martin |
| Alternative Considered | Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F |
| Aircraft Being Replaced | CF-18 Hornet (in service since 1982) |
| Review Ordered | March 2025 |
| Original Review Deadline | September 2025 |
| Current Status | Ongoing, no timeline set |
| Aircraft Already Funded | First 16 jets |
| Operational Command Affected | NORAD |
| Saab’s Job Promise | Up to 12,500 Canadian jobs |
The Swedes have been putting in a lot of effort since Saab saw the opportunity. The Gripen pitch has lost its subtlety. Construct the aircraft in Canada. Give the intellectual property to someone else. More than 12,500 jobs in the aerospace industry are promised. Even a softer mixed-fleet concept, in which Canada adds Gripens for sovereign control while retaining some F-35s, is being discussed. The Royal Canadian Air Force continues to subtly indicate that it still wants the Lockheed Martin aircraft, so it’s a shrewd offer—possibly too shrewd. NORAD requires an aircraft “that has overmatch over the adversaries,” according to Maj. Gen. Chris McKenna in December.” Everyone in the room knew that wasn’t a Gripen.
Similar conclusions can be drawn from the figures in a recent Canadian tender. According to reports, the F-35 received a score of 57.1 out of 60. Whether you believe those numbers or not, the difference is so great that abandoning the F-35 begins to seem more like a political choice than a defense one. The Gripen scored 19.8. Carney is right to worry about an excessive reliance on the American industrial base, but a 4.5-generation fighter won’t solve the issue in 2026, much less 2040.
And there’s the awkward incident that was covered by CBC this week. Canada has secretly signed a $1.1 billion HIMARS deal with Lockheed Martin, the same company that is allegedly being kept at arm’s length, while the F-35 file remains frozen. Canada was listed with Australia, Estonia, Sweden, and Taiwan in the Pentagon notice. The Liberal government did not hold a press conference or issue a statement. The public announcement was actually withdrawn before release, according to two sources who spoke with CBC. The contradiction is difficult to ignore. The slogan reads, “Buy Canadian.” According to the paperwork, sign with Lockheed.
According to reports, NATO is on the verge of selecting a Bombardier-Saab GlobalEye aircraft for its airborne warning fleet, which would be a huge win for Canadian industry and further complicate the fighter calculation. Ottawa continues to treat these discussions as distinct, while Saab continues to link them together. Perhaps they are. Perhaps they aren’t. It appears that the decision is made more by inertia than by any specific person, the longer the review goes on. For their part, the CF-18s simply continue to fly.
