When projections begin to move in a single direction, a certain level of anxiety descends upon commodity markets, and that’s the current situation. For the third time in recent memory, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for oil prices, and the figures are beginning to sound more like a warning than a study. By the fourth quarter, Brent will be $120 per barrel. WTI is not far behind. This is the kind of number that was solidly in the tail-risk column even six months ago.
The bank’s baseline is visually striking enough. Goldman now projects that WTI will be around $83 and Brent will average $90 in Q4, both of which are up about $10 from the previous call. However, investors consistently return to the language that appears beneath the headline. $120 becomes a destination rather than a scenario if Gulf output continues to decline by 2.5 million barrels per day and exports from the Middle East do not return to normal by the end of July.
| Key Information | Details |
|---|---|
| Topic | Oil Price Forecast — Second Half of 2026 |
| Source of Forecast | Goldman Sachs Research Division |
| Current Brent Crude Price | $106.68 per barrel |
| Current WTI Crude Price | $95.35 per barrel |
| Updated Q4 Brent Forecast | $90 per barrel (baseline) |
| Extreme Scenario Forecast | $120 per barrel |
| Trigger Event | Strait of Hormuz blockade and stalled US–Iran talks |
| Estimated Lost Middle East Output | 14.5 million barrels per day |
| Brent Peak (March 31) | $118.35 per barrel |
| WTI Peak (April 7) | $112.95 per barrel |
| Demand Impact (Q2 2026) | Decline of 1.7 million barrels per day |
| Forecast Date | Late April 2026 |
If you were to stroll through any major Asian refining hub these days, you would detect a more subdued form of stress. Tankers are sitting around longer than normal. Operators in storage are on edge. A year ago, most people couldn’t find the Strait of Hormuz on a map, but now it’s the most talked-about shipping channel in international finance. Brent dropped to $118.35 on March 31 due to Iran’s blockade. A week later, WTI reached $112.95. As peace negotiations stagnated, prices temporarily decreased before starting to rise once more.
The market might be overreacting. That’s an idea worth clinging to. For a very long time, oil has been priced in disasters that never materialize. However, the numbers Goldman is putting on paper are based on actual production losses from the area, which are estimated to be 14.5 million barrels per day. Similar remarks were made this week by ING’s commodity team, who noted that inventories alone cannot close the gap for very long. Analysts believe that as this carries on, the market would require higher prices just to ration what’s left.
The data already demonstrates demand destruction. In comparison to last year, Goldman predicts that the world’s oil demand will decrease by 1.7 million barrels per day this quarter and by about 100,000 barrels per day into 2026. Pakistan’s refiners have begun to focus on Venezuela and Russia. India is depending on its refiners to extract more LPG from its current crude. Modest but significant changes. Fatih Birol of the IEA has gone so far as to say that the conflict will permanently reduce long-term oil demand—a statement that is rarely stated aloud.
It’s difficult not to feel a little apprehensive about how rapidly the topic changed as you see everything play out. Whether Brent would hold above $80 was a topic of discussion in January. The hopeful result is now $90, and the warning shot is $120. Wall Street isn’t exactly in a panic. However, Goldman and Bank of America both identified the same triple-digit danger this month, and when two of the world’s biggest oil desks come to the same unsettling conclusion, it usually means something.
More than economics, diplomacy will determine if oil truly surpasses $120. For traders who want their variables in spreadsheets, that is an unpleasant thought. For the time being, the market is repricing gradually before doing so all at once, as markets do when under duress.
