Between a drone attack and a canceled cargo ship that is canceled, there is a point at which the abstract notion of “energy security” ceases to be abstract. When Iranian drones attacked two facilities inside Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, one of the most significant pieces of industrial real estate on the planet, in early March 2026, the world’s biggest LNG exporter went silent.
Almost immediately, QatarEnergy, which provides about one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas, declared force majeure. Cargoes were rerouted or simply disappeared from shipping trackers, contracts were canceled, and Edison CEO Nicola Monti began making calls somewhere in Milan. His business had a long-term contract to receive 6.4 billion cubic meters of Qatari LNG annually, or about 10% of Italy’s annual fuel consumption. Ten of those anticipated deliveries between April and mid-June abruptly vanished. Simply vanished.
LNG wasn’t the only company affected by the drone attacks. Additionally, they successfully blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which is a small channel through which an uncomfortable portion of global energy passes. Oil and LNG traffic fell by 86%, and about 700 ships were idle on both sides of the strait. That picture, with hundreds of ships anchored, engines running, cargo waiting, and the market holding its breath, perfectly conveys how precarious the system is underneath all the optimistic forecasts.
To its credit, Italy remained calm. Edison acted swiftly, replacing ten LNG cargoes from Qatar with seven from the United States, and Monti took care to present his remarks in public as measured. At a mid-April media briefing, he said, “The market at the moment, while tight, offers sufficient flexibility options.” This is the kind of statement a CEO makes when he’s quietly relieved that things didn’t get worse. According to Edison, there won’t be any interruptions to deliveries to its Italian clients. The future events in Ras Laffan will have a significant impact on whether or not that confidence is maintained.
The gas market seems to have been subtly repricing risk for the past few weeks. The anticipated LNG supply surplus, which everyone was expecting to lower prices around 2027 or 2028, has been postponed, possibly to 2029 or 2030, according to Morgan Stanley and Energy Intelligence. In just one month, a glut that required years of investment was eliminated. Whether Qatar’s disruption is a short-term setback or the start of something that will change long-term supply contracts throughout Europe and Asia is still up for debate.
Meanwhile, the United States finds itself unexpectedly at the center of the narrative. The timing of the opening of two new American LNG export terminals this year is almost unsettling: Golden Pass, which is partially owned by QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, and Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant. They are the primary reason, according to Monti, that the market will rebalance in eighteen months. He might be correct. The capacity and infrastructure are real, and American gas producers are paying close attention to signals of European demand.
What will happen if Qatar’s force majeure lasts much longer than mid-June is the question that no one is quite willing to publicly address. That situation is “reasonable to expect,” according to Edison’s Fabio Dubini, who oversees the company’s gas portfolio. After diversifying away from Russian pipeline gas for more than three years, European utilities are now diversifying away from Qatari LNG as well. The list of potential suppliers is not endless.
As this develops, it’s difficult to ignore how easily confidence can give way to backup plans. The future of gas in Qatar is currently genuinely uncertain. So is everyone else’s, in a more subdued but no less important way.
