EasyJet Fuel Shortage Warning: What the Three-Week Countdown Means for Your Summer Holiday

In mid-to-late April 2026, two messages that didn’t exactly say the same thing left easyJet’s communications channels within about a day of one another. A passenger concerned about their July holiday received the following response from the airline’s official customer service account on X: “We are currently not seeing disruption to jet fuel supply and are engaging with fuel suppliers and government to monitor the situation.” We don’t intend to alter our flying program. Clear, comforting, and straightforward. In an interview with the Majorca Daily Bulletin, easyJet’s country CEO for Spain and Portugal, Javier Gálara, delivered the second message: after “three or four weeks,” it is “difficult to see” what will happen. Three to four weeks puts the possible disruption starting around May 12 to 18, given that Gökara was speaking on April 20. The majority of passenger anxiety currently resides in the space between these two statements, which are not technically contradictory—the airline is currently operating, and uncertainty will start in about three weeks.

The Strait of Hormuz is the root cause. Tanker traffic through the waterway has virtually stopped since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran intensified and Iran took action to effectively close the strait, which serves as a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Since late February, the effects on aviation fuel in Europe have been mounting. The International Energy Agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, warned the public that Europe only had about six weeks of jet fuel left and that flight cancellations might happen “soon” if nothing changed. In a direct letter to EU commissioners for energy, transportation, and tourism, Airports Council International Europe, the trade association that represents more than 600 airports on the continent, warned that if travel through Hormuz did not resume within three weeks “in any significant and stable way,” a systemic jet fuel shortage would “become a reality for the EU.” The letter emphasized that the aviation industry was about to enter its busiest summer season when the crisis struck. The timing is not coincidental. This is the worst-case scenario.

EasyJet has consistently responded to the public by saying that flights are running as usual, that the schedule has not changed, and that passengers will be notified if anything changes. According to CEO Kenton Jarvis, every airport that easyJet serves is “operating as normal.” The airline has been receiving an abnormally high number of social media inquiries from anxious travelers, such as a group inquiring about whether there is enough fuel to get them to June, a parent with two small children scheduled to travel to Berlin, and someone heading to Tunisia asking if they might be stuck overseas. The general message has been to proceed as planned, and the responses have been measured and patient. Passengers traveling to one of the most popular summertime destinations in the UK can feel somewhat reassured by Gökara’s additional context, which states that Spain is in a “comparatively better position” than neighboring countries because only 11% of Spain’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East. However, he also stated unequivocally that “No one will be immune to potential supply problems.” Because the planes operating those routes refuel throughout the network, Spanish routes are still impacted if the situation in France, Italy, or Germany gets worse.

Among major airline executives, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has been the most quantitative. He told Sky News that between 10 and 25 percent of the airline’s fuel supplies “might be at risk” through May and June, but that if the conflict ends and Hormuz reopens by late April, “there is almost no risk to supply.” The kind of planning horizon that makes aviation executives clearly uncomfortable to discuss in public is that conditional structure, which depends on a war ending on a specific timeline. Dustin Benton, an industry advisor at Forefront Advisers, succinctly stated, “You can’t just snap your fingers and switch everything back on.” It would take weeks, not days, for even a swift de-escalation of the conflict to result in the restoration of fuel supplies at airports throughout Europe. The best-case scenario, according to aviation expert Sally Gethin, is as follows: “Even if it opens, you’d still need time for the jet fuel supplies to start up again.” The best-case scenario would be an increase in fares and the cancellation of some routes.

The current practical picture for travelers considering reservations in May, June, July, and August is one of persistent uncertainty with a comparatively short window for clarity. For its part, the government has exercised caution. Keir Mather, the Parliamentary Under Secretary for Transport, informed the House of Commons that “many airlines lock in fuel prices in advance,” providing some protection against price spikes, and that there is “no immediate cause for concern” regarding fuel stocks. More importantly, he stated that the aviation sector “only ever in this industry have three to four weeks visibility of jet fuel supplies”—a statement that implies the current state of affairs is actually functioning inside rather than outside of typical planning parameters. That is both comforting and not very comforting at the same time. The industry standard for visibility is three to four weeks. Additionally, it is currently the point at which the fuel crisis becomes truly unpredictable.

There’s a sense that everyone is watching the same horizon and hoping the war ends before they reach it, given the variety of airline statements, industry cautions, and government assurances being released at the same time.